Friday, May 29, 2015

SECTION 18 - Michael Jordan's Wizards Years




There is a perception that Jordan's Wizards years were atrocious, but this is only half true. Before Jordan's knee injury, his stint with the Wizards was going very well. The Wizards only went downhill after his knee injury on Feb 7, 2002 against the Kings. Let's take a look at Wizards Jordan from the beginning.

While preparing for his return, Jordan's ribs were injured by Ron Artest during a pickup game. Jordan rushed his return to training, and Tim Grover advised against this due to tendonitis risk. Jordan overworked himself and his knees became a problem. 


Before the season started, Jordan was already dealing with 

- having to skip 3 days of practice before the season opener in MSG because of fluid buildup in his knee 
- recovering from 2 broken ribs (against Artest) and back spasms
- tendinitis in his knee and wrist
- and during the season Jordan had fluid drained from his knee multiple times

So even before his knee injury, he was already in a hobbled state


At first, the Wizards 2001/02 season started off very poorly, as they went 2-9. Eventually, however, the Wizards found their chemistry and turned it around. Even with this slow start, the Wizards made it to 26-21 by the All-star break, and 26-20 in the games that Jordan played before the injury happened. The Wizards also achieved the 26-21 record even with Rip Hamilton missing 5 weeks in that stretch due to a groin injury.

A healthy Jordan and Rip Hamilton
throughout the season realistically
could have competed for
the East's number 1 seed.

When Rip and Jordan both played, the Wizards were 15-1 in the last 16 games that both of them played before the injury happened. Considering that the Wizards were on a 45-win pace (46-47 wins if you consider the 26-20 record when Jordan played) at the All-star break with Rip missing time, they would easily crack 50 wins had both Jordan and Hamilton stayed healthy throughout the season, even with a slow 2-9 start.


In the 46 games that Jordan played in 01/02 before the injury, he averaged

25.1 - 6.2 - 5.3 - 1.5 - 0.5 on 42%
points - rebounds - assists - steals - blocks


Jordan's numbers were also improving as the season went on.

In his last 20 games up to the injury he averaged  27.5 - 6.4 - 5.2 - 1.3 - 0.5 on 44% In his last 10 games up to the injury he averaged 29.7 - 6.6 - 6.1 - 1.2 - 0.3 on 47%

This improvement in his numbers could have been due to

1. healing from his tendinitis and knee problems
2. adjustment to joining a new team and coming off a 3 year layoff
3. or a combination of these factors
If not for his aggravated knee injury against the Kings right before the all-star break, his numbers may have continued to improve from the 25.1 - 6.2 - 5.3 - 1.5 - 0.5 on 42% he was averaging through his first 46 games before the knee injury against the Kings. Immediately after the knee injury, the Wizards lost 9 of their next 10 games and eventually caused them to miss the playoffs. Tracy McGrady was the only player who averaged 25-6-5 at the end of the 2001/02 season

No player has ever averaged 25-6-5 at age 38, but Jordan was on pace to become the oldest person to average 25-6-5 before his injury. Jordan didn't shoot as efficiently, which is expected at the end of his career and without being fully healthy in the first place. Even so, his low FG% didn't stop him from putting his team in the W column.


- After going 26-20 (0.565 win%) in the 46 games that Jordan played pre-injury
- The Wizards went 11-25 (0.306 win%) in the games that he missed and played after injury
- and as mentioned above, the Wizards were 15-1 in the last 16 games that both Jordan and Rip Hamilton played together up to and including the injury game. 

In just over a half-season before Jordan's knee injury, the Wizards beat every East team that made the playoffs other than the Pistons, as well as the league-best record Kings and the 4th-best record Mavericks. So the Wizards beat a lot of solid teams in just over a half season before Jordan's knee injury

The 2001 Wizards were a 19-win team the year before, but well on track to make the playoffs with Jordan. There are only two instances that a team got a winning record one year after getting less than 20 wins


2004 Nuggets

- who drafted Carmelo
- and added Andre Miller

2009 Heat 
- with Wade coming back from injury
- along with adding Jermaine O'Neal 
- and drafting Michael Beasley.


Outside of Jordan, the 2002 Wizards' only new additions were 5 bench players, 4 of whom where rookies that played very little minutes  
- Tyronn Lue (20 mpg)
- Rookie Kwame Brown (14 mpg)
- Rookie Brendan Haywood (14 mpg)
- Rookie Etan Thomas (13 mpg)
- Rookie Bobby Simmons (11 mpg)

Jordan was the only new player on the 2002 team that had a significant impact and played significant minutes. So this would have been the only time that a sub-20 win team became a winning team within one season, after only adding 1 new starter.

Jordan was also in MVP talks early on in the season, which sounds ridiculous at first, but in perspective he actually would have had a solid shot if the team remained healthy. Jason Kidd led a formerly 26-win Nets team to 52 wins and the number 1 seed in the East, and was 2nd place in 2001/02 MVP voting behind Tim Duncan.


As mentioned above, the Wizards, who only won 19 games the previous year, very easily could have reached over 50 wins with both Rip and Jordan healthy, and they would definitely have a chance of overtaking the Nets for the East's number 1 seed. Jordan's individual numbers pre-injury, though impressive, don't look MVP caliber, but his impact on the team was definitely worth MVP consideration. Especially when you factor in his defensive impact.



Even at old age and not at 100% health,
Jordan had an amazing defensive
impact, especially for a perimeter
player,  and he even locked down
a few star players along the way.
2001 Wizards = 2nd worst in ppg allowed the year before.

Up to the injury game
2002 Wizards = allowed 92.2 ppg through 47 games (Jordan missed 1 game)
- would be tied for 6th-best in the league with the Pistons.

2002 Wizards = allowed 92.0 ppg in the 46 games Jordan played
- would be tied for 5th best in the league with the Nets

After Jordan's injury 
2002 Wizards = allowed 96.8 ppg in the remaining 35 games
- would be ranked 19th in the league
- and fell to 11th in ppg allowed for the overall season.

And there are several examples of Jordan's great 1 on 1 defense prior to his injury

  • Locking down Peja Stojakovic (21 ppg on 48% for the 01/02 season) in the Feb 7, 2002 game in which Jordan's knee injury happened. Peja did not score on Jordan until after the knee injury happened.
  • And even three games after his knee injury, Jordan was still able to shut down Shawn Marion, who averaged 19.1 ppg on 47% that season. Marion did not score until late in the 1st half and did not score on Jordan until midway through the 3rd quarter. Marion had only 4 points on Jordan.
Like Jordan's individual numbers, his defensive impact also improved as the season went on prior to his injury

The Wizards started the season off slow with a 2-9 start
- and allowed 98.4 ppg during the 2-9 start
- on pace for 5th worst in the league

In Jordan's last 35 games pre-injury after the 2-9 start
- the Wizards allowed 90.0 ppg
- on pace for 3rd best in the league

When Jordan and Rip Hamilton played together, they were 15-1 in their last 16 games together up to the injury 
- The Wizards allowed 86.3 ppg in that 15-1 stretch
- Easily on pace for the best in the league
- The 2002 Heat were number 1 at 88.7 ppg allowed

Rip played 78 games the previous year and the Wizards were still 2nd worst in ppg allowed. The Wizards were by far the best defense in the league when MJ and Rip played together pre-injury. Think about that for a second. A 38 year old hobbled Jordan being the only major addition to a team that would have gone from 2nd worst to number 1 in ppg allowed if not for injuries. Can you think of any other perimeter player who could have that type of defensive impact at that late a stage of their career? There are even very few big men or rim protectors who could have done so.

Under Jordan's defensive leadership, the 2002 Wizards were also great at holding opponent's to low FG%

The 2001 Wizards' opponents shot 47.0%, 3rd worst in the league

Through their first 47 games pre-Jordan's injury (Jordan missed 1 game)
- The 2002 Wizards' opponents shot 44.3%
- on pace for 11th best in the league

In the 35 games post-Jordan's injury
- The 2002 Wizards' opponents shot 46.4%
- on pace for 2nd worst in the league (0.0001% worse than the Suns)

And under Jordan, the Wizards improved on holding opponents to low FG% as the season went on

Wizards got off to a slow 2-9 start to begin the season
- The Wizards' opponents shot 46.8%
- on pace for worst in the league

In the Wizards last 36 games pre-Jordan injury (Jordan missed 1 game)

- The Wizards' opponents shot 43.6%
- on pace for 8th best in the league

The Wizards were 15-1 in the last 16 games that Jordan and Rip Hamilton played together prior to Jordan's knee injury
- The Wizards' opponents shot 41.7% in that 15-1 stretch
- Easily on pace for best in the league
- The 2002 Lakers held opponents to a league best 42.4%

Remember, Rip played 78 games the previous year and the Wizards were still 3rd worst in the league in opponent FG%. When Jordan and Rip played together, they were easily the best, and Jordan was the only major addition to the roster.

Jordan also had a huge impact on his team's rebounding, even though he was only third on the team in rpg

2002 Wizards = 43.27 rpg through 47 games pre-injury
(MJ missed 1 game)
- on pace for 9th best in the league

2002 Wizards = 43.39 rpg through 46 games that MJ played pre-injury

- on pace for 8th best in the league

2002 Wizards = 40.40 rpg in 35 games post-injury

- on pace for 4th worst in the league
- fell to 18th in rebounding for the overall season

and Jordan's impact on rebounding was also improving as the season went on

Wizards got off to a slow 2-9 start to begin the season
- averaged 40.36 rpg in that stretch 

- on pace for 4th worst in the league

In Jordan's last 35 games pre-injury
- the Wizards averaged 44.34 rpg 

- on pace for 3rd best in the league

Jordan was only 3rd on the team in rpg, but for whatever reason, his presence alone still made the Wizards an elite rebounding team, and they were a poor rebounding team without him

Even in 2001/02, Jordan was a top 5 player in the league behind Shaq, Kobe, Duncan, and maybe Garnett. Players like T-Mac, Iverson, Vince, and Pierce didn't have as big an impact on winning. Chris Webber had a much better supporting cast than the 19-win Wizards as well and not a big impact on defense. Had Jordan and his team stayed healthy, he would have had a much bigger turnaround in the W-column than Jason Kidd did, who was 2nd place in 2002 MVP.

Jordan's Wizards were a much worse supporting cast than any of the aforementioned players' teams, especially with their 2nd best player Rip Hamilton missing 5 weeks. Even with Rip playing 78 games, the 2001 Wizards were a 19-win team with virtually the same supporting cast. Despite a much worse supporting cast than the aforementioned players, he still led them to a winning record with an injured Rip Hamilton prior to the injury, and as mentioned above, the Wizards were 15-1 in their last 16 games prior to the knee injury with Jordan and Rip both playing.

So, prior to his injury, an old Jordan in the 2001/02 season was an exceptional all around player, with the exception of lower efficiency (due in large part to physical ailments he was dealing with prior to the season), though his lower efficiency didn't stop him from putting his team in the W column. Unfortunately, the knee problems would carry over into his last Wizards' season, and along with his pre-existing physical ailments, he was unable to have this kind of impact again.

And the most impressive part is that given all this information, the 2002 Wizards would have a realistic chance of making the NBA Finals had their lineup stayed healthy the full season with Rip and Jordan playing full-time.

We might have been able to see this matchup
in the 2002 NBA Finals had the Wizards stayed
healthy throughout the season

Wizards = 26-21 up to the game Jordan had his knee injury against the Kings, and lost 9 of their next 10 games right after the injury.

As mentioned before, Rip Hamilton, the Wizards' 2nd best player, missed 5 weeks from groin injury in the first half of the season.

Wizards = 15-1 in the last 16 games that Jordan and Rip played together before the injury

Wizards = on pace for 45 wins up to Jordan's injury on Feb 7, 2002 against the Kings, even with Rip Hamilton missing all that time. 
(46-47 wins if you consider the 26-20 record when Jordan played)

Nets = the number 1 East seed at 52 wins.

With Rip and Jordan playing full time they could easily get 50+ wins and contend for the number 1 seed and Eastern Conference championships. Of course, the Wizards still wouldn't have stood a chance against Shaq and Kobe's Lakers in the Finals.

and as shown above, the Wizards played great defense before Jordan's injury, and were continuing to improve as the season went on before his injury.


These are the points to remember 


Point 1 - Historical impact on W-L column
Jordan had the Wizards on track to be the first sub-20 team to get a winning record, and to this day it would have been the only time that it happened with just one major addition to the roster. The Wizards were 26-20 when MJ played pre-iniury (46/47 win pace), with Rip Hamilton out 5 weeks. They were 15-1 when MJ and Rip played together, making it pretty much guaranteed that an injury-free Rip and Jordan would get the 1 seed over the 52-win Nets and have a great shot at the 2002 Finals.

Point 2 - Great individual and statistical dominance
Jordan averaged 25.1 ppg 6.2 rpg 5.3 apg 1.5 spg 0.5 bpg on 42% pre-injury (in a tougher defensive environment),Tracy McGrady being the only player to average at least 25-6-5 by the end of the 2001/02 season. And as we saw above, Jordan's individual numbers were continuing to improve as the season went on prior to his injury. The only negative was Jordan's efficiency, but it didn't stop him from winning games or improving his FG% as the season went on. And besides, Jordan was playing hobbled even before his injury happened on crippled knees with tendinitis and cracked ribs. So on top of being 38 years old coming off a 3-year layoff, it's no wonder he had poor efficiency.

Point 3 - The ability to take the 2nd worst defense to the best in ppg allowed.
With Rip Hamilton out 5 weeks, and with Jordan as the only notable addition, the 2002 Wizards went from 2nd worst to top 5 in ppg allowed in the 46 games that Jordan played pre-injury. And as we saw earlier, the Wizards were by far the best in ppg allowed when Jordan and Rip played together pre-injury, as well as in opponent's FG%. And not only did Jordan have enormous team defensive impact, he still guarded the other team's best perimeter player many times and shut them down (Pierce, Vince, Peja, Sprewell (twice), Marion).

Point 4 - The ability to take a top 10 worst rebounding team to top a 10 best rebounding team
For whatever reason, Jordan's presence also singlehandedly transformed the Wizards from a weak rebounding team to an elite one. The 2001 Wizards were top 10 worst in rebounding, yet a top 10 best team in rebounding pre-injury. And their rebounding was also improving as the season went on under Jordan, prior to his injury. Following their slow 2-9 start, the Wizards averaged 44.34 rpg in Jordan's last 35 games pre-injury, which would be top 3 in the league. After injury, the Wizards had a top-4 worst pace in rebounding over the final 35 games (40.40 rpg), and fell to 18th in rebounding for the overall season.

And once again, it has to be emphasized that this was a 38-year old hobbled and crippled shell of Jordan doing all of these amazing individual and team accomplishments. 

If the watered down, crippled version of Jordan pre-injury can
  • Average 25-6-5, under tougher defensive restrictions than today (some handchecking was legal in 01/02)
  • Singlehandedly transform a weak rebounding and defensive team to an elite one
  • Shut down some of the top scorers of this era (Pierce + Vince)
  • Get a sub-20 team a winning record pre-injury as the only notable addition, with his 2nd option out 5 weeks (a likely number 1 seed had both he and Rip stayed injury-free)
It's pretty much unfathomable how dominant a fully prime and 100% healthy Jordan would be in the modern era, on both the team and individual levels. 

More


Looking at how the Jordan Era players had an easier time in the modern era
- Looking at how a 38-40 year old Jordan himself schooled the 2000s defenders

SECTION 3 - Jordan's "Weak" Defensive Competition Compared to Lebron/Kobe's "Advanced" Competition

- Proving the vast superiority of individual defenders of Jordan's era compared to the 2000s
- Destroying the myth that Jordan never played zone defense
- Proof that 80s/90s players would still have success guarding 2000s players without the 80s/90s rules
- Looking at how Jordan did against the 80s teams and why expansion did not make it easier to win championships
- Proof that Jordan's Competition was 80s-quality and far better than the 2000s era
- Looking at the truth of how the Bulls did without Jordan, and how other great teams did without their stars.
- Did Jordan really get any more special treatment than other superstars? Nope.
- Exposing the myths behind the great, but misunderstood, Wilt Chamberlain
- Looking at how Lebron got locked down by defenders of the 2000s era and comparing them to the vastly superior 80s/90s
- Destroying one of the media's biggest misconceptions regarding Lebron's solid but vastly overrated defense
- Lebron fans think no player in history could succeed if their teammates don't step up, and that Lebron is the only one who has carried a team on his back. Is that really the case?
- The real Jordan vs Lebron comparison
- The real Jordan vs Kobe comparison
- Kareem is great, but he is not even the greatest center of all-time, let alone the greatest of all-time.
- The full context behind Jordan's struggles without Pippen
- A look at how Jordan turned the Wizards around before his knee injury caught up to him

- Looking at Jordan's defensive impact in detail, both as a team player and 1 on 1 defender

- Looking at the strong evidence supporting that Jordan would have achieved more than what LeBron has in Cleveland and Miami 

SECTION 21 - Hakeem Olajuwon: The Greatest Center of All-Time
- Hakeem Olajuwon is the best center of all-time, and there is strong evidence to prove it


SECTION 22 - Chris Paul: The Most Overrated Point Guard Of All-Time

- Chris Paul is an extremely overrated playoff performer and defender, and isn't even a top 5 PG of his own era, let alone all-time

SECTION 23 - Kevin Johnson: The Most Underrated Point Guard Of All-Time

- Kevin Johnson is an extremely underrated and under-appreciated point guard, who should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer and considered a top-10 point guard of all-time

SECTION 24 - The Three Greatest Playoff Runs of All-Time
- Analyzing the three greatest individual playoff runs in NBA history

SECTION 25 - The Worst Finals Performances of All-Time
- Analyzing the worst performances in NBA Finals history

SECTION 26 - Jordan vs Russell
- Comparing the two players who won the most championships as the best player on their team

SECTION 27 - The Five Greatest Coaches of All-Time
- Taking a look at the greatest coaches in NBA history

SECTION 28 - The Least Deserving Finals MVPs of All-Time
- Taking a look at the players who least deserved to win their Finals MVPs


SECTION 29 - Refuting 10 Myths About Michael Jordan
- Refuting certain myths about Jordan, as well as abridging of some of the main points in earlier sections for easier reference.


SECTION 30 - The 20 Greatest Conference Finals Runs of All-Time
- Ranking the 20 greatest playoff runs in which a player played 3 rounds before losing prior to the NBA Finals


SECTION 31 - The 1970s: The Weakest Decade of the NBA's Post-Infancy
- Why the 1970s was the weakest decade of any era from 1960-present


SECTION 32 - The 10 Worst Supporting Casts on NBA Finals Teams (1960-Present)
- Examining the worst supporting casts on teams that reached the NBA Finals


SECTION 33 - The 10 Greatest Rookie Playoff Runs of All-Time
- The most impressive playoff runs in which rookies led their team to at least one series win

5 comments:

  1. It's too bad MJ didn't stay healthy that season. I would have loved to have seen another playoff run.

    ReplyDelete
  2. How was his defensive impact during the last Wizards season? I would assume he did not guard 'star' players in the last season as his knee problems caught up to him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. His defense was average in 2002/03, nothing special. I didn't see him guard many star players in the games I've reviewed, though there were a few games he tried guarding Tracy McGrady and got lit up

      - https://youtu.be/S1BYk0pGM_A?t=69
      - https://youtu.be/LapFDRYfCF8

      There was one game in 2001/02 where he guarded Tracy McGrady before his knee injury, but unfortunately even in that game his knee became swollen and forced him to sit out early and miss their next game against the Spurs (the only game he missed pre-knee injury in 2001/02). So even the one time he faced T-Mac pre-injury as a Wizard he was still playing hobbled. Unfortunately I haven't found footage of that game, but here's an article on it

      - http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/nba/games/2001-12-01-magic-wizards.htm

      Delete
  3. Average by his standards? Or just in general?

    Oh okay. Thanks for the link.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Average in general. he had a few highlight plays here and there but they were few and far between

      Delete